Marginal Effects

Also known as · marginal effect · ME · AME · average marginal effect · partial effects

The marginal effect of a regressor xjx_j is the change in Pr⁡(y=1)\Pr(y = 1) from a one-unit change in xjx_j, holding all else fixed. In LPM the marginal effect is the coefficient β^j\hat\beta_j. In logit and probit the marginal effect depends on where you are on the S-curve: ∂Pr⁡/∂xj=g(x′β)⋅βj\partial \Pr / \partial x_j = g(\mathbf{x}'\boldsymbol\beta) \cdot \beta_j, where gg is the link function's PDF (dlogis or dnorm in R).

When to use

Whenever you need a probability change from a logit/probit regression — raw coefficients only tell direction. Two conventions: the marginal effect at the mean (MEM) evaluates g(xˉ′β^)⋅β^jg(\bar{\mathbf{x}}'\hat{\boldsymbol\beta}) \cdot \hat\beta_j at the sample means, and the average marginal effect (AME) averages g(xi′β^)⋅β^jg(\mathbf{x}_i'\hat{\boldsymbol\beta}) \cdot \hat\beta_j across all observations. R's margins::margins(model) returns the AME with proper standard errors. See the Computing marginal effects (logit / probit) recipe.

Appears in