Strict Exogeneity

Also known as · strictly exogenous

Strict exogeneity is the time-series version of the zero-conditional-mean assumption: E[ut∣X]=0\mathbb E[u_t \mid \mathbf X] = 0 for all time periods — past, present, and future. It is stronger than contemporaneous exogeneity (E[ut∣xt]=0\mathbb E[u_t \mid x_t] = 0), which only requires the current period's error to be uncorrelated with the current regressor.

When to use

Strict exogeneity fails for autoregressive models (where lagged yy is a regressor and obviously correlates with past errors) and in any system with feedback (central bank reacts to past inflation → today's interest rate depends on past errors of inflation). Many panel and dynamic-panel estimators (Arellano-Bond, Anderson-Hsiao) exist because strict exogeneity is implausible in those settings.

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