Detrending

Also known as · detrended · trend removal · Frisch-Waugh-Lovell theorem · FWL

Detrending removes a deterministic time trend from a series by regressing it on tt and keeping the residuals. The residual series — the part of yy not explained by the trend — is then used for substantive analysis. By the Frisch-Waugh-Lovell theorem, regressing detrended yy on detrended xx gives the exact same coefficient as regressing yy on xx and tt together.

When to use

Detrend any time series before correlating it with another trending series — otherwise you risk Spurious Regression. The choice of trend functional form matters: linear tt, quadratic t2t^2, exponential (use log⁡y\log y), or non-parametric (Hodrick-Prescott filter). PS_3's HNC analysis adds tt as a regressor in Q5 to detrend log_nox against the secular vehicle-fleet growth — the FWL theorem says this is equivalent to detrending both sides first.

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