Consistency

Also known as · consistent estimator

An estimator β^\hat\beta is consistent if it converges in probability to the true parameter β\beta as the sample size grows: β^→pβ\hat\beta \xrightarrow{p} \beta as n→∞n \to \infty. Consistency is a large-sample property: a consistent estimator may be biased in finite samples, but its bias shrinks with nn. Contrast with unbiased: E[β^]=β\mathbb E[\hat\beta] = \beta holds at every sample size, not just asymptotically.

When to use

The distinction matters because OLS under endogeneity is both biased AND inconsistent — it converges to the wrong target no matter how much data you collect. 2SLS is biased in small samples (first-stage estimation uncertainty) but consistent, so it improves with nn. MLE for logit / probit is similarly consistent but not unbiased. When choosing estimators, consistency is the minimum bar — without it more data is no help.

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